Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace Running Cost by State in 2026: Same Heat, EIA Prices, 44 States Ranked

How to compare a kWh with a cubic foot of gas

Put both fuels in Btu of heat delivered to the house. EIA's conversion factors: 1 kWh = 3,412 Btu and 1 cubic foot of natural gas = 1,036 Btu (2026 estimate). A heat pump delivers its COP times the electrical energy as heat, so 1 million Btu needs 293.1 ÷ COP kWh: 97.7 kWh at COP 3.0, 117.2 kWh at COP 2.5. A furnace delivers its AFUE fraction of the gas energy, so 1 million Btu needs 1016 cubic feet at 95% AFUE or 1207 at 80%.

Why the annual gas price and the June electricity price? Residential gas prices per Mcf swing seasonally (summer per-unit prices are high because fixed charges are spread over little usage), so the annual average is the fair heating-season number. Electricity is far less seasonal, and June 2026 is the latest state table EIA has published. Both are averages that exclude nothing: fixed monthly charges are inside them, which slightly overstates the marginal price of each fuel.

Cost per million Btu by state: heat pump vs 95% gas furnace

Sorted by the heat pump's advantage (largest saving over gas first). "Break-even COP" is the seasonal COP at which the two cost the same; the "Cheaper" column uses COP 3.0. EIA did not publish a 2025 residential gas price for Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, so those 7 states are omitted rather than estimated.

What that means for a cold month

Scale the per-MMBtu figures by your own heat load. A convenient unit is the therm on your gas bill: 1 therm = 100,000 Btu, so a month in which your furnace burned 100 therms delivered about 10 MMBtu of heat at 95% AFUE (a little less at 80%). For that 10 MMBtu scenario, here are the five states where a heat pump saves the most and the five where gas saves the most:

To turn this into a full-season number, add up the therms on last winter's gas bills, divide by 10 for MMBtu, and multiply by the difference column for your state. The heat pump calculator does this from your current heating bill, and the operating cost by climate guide covers how COP falls with outdoor temperature.

Four things the table cannot tell you

1. Your COP is a climate question. Seasonal COP near 3.0 is realistic for a modern air-source unit in a mixed or mild climate. In a very cold climate a standard unit spends hours near COP 1.5 to 2.0 and may fall back to resistance strips; a cold-climate model holds up better but costs more. Compare your state's break-even COP with what installers quote for your climate zone, not the nameplate figure.
2. Your rates are not the state average. Utilities inside a state differ, and a marginal tier or time-of-use rate can be far from the average. Use your bill's energy charge in the electricity cost calculator, and your gas bill's per-therm price (×10.36 gives $/Mcf at EIA's heat content) for the gas side.
3. Two meters vs one. Dropping gas entirely removes the gas utility's fixed monthly customer charge, which the per-Btu table ignores. In a house that uses gas only for heat, that charge alone can tip a marginal case toward the heat pump.
4. A heat pump is also your air conditioner. If the alternative is furnace plus a separate AC replacement, the equipment comparison is different from furnace-only. The heat pump cost guide covers installed prices; with the federal 25C credit gone for 2026 installs, rebates come from state HOMES/HEAR programs and utilities, which the incentive finder lists.

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